- Eagles spent $1000, and their wallets are "empty" by $600 at the end of the day (trade deficit $600).
- Pandas spent $400, and their wallets are "heavier" by $600 by the end of the day (trade surplus $600).
- Or in terms of trade imbalance, Eagles are down $600 and Pandas are up $600.
- But, its not like Eagles were sitting idle, they in turn traded similarly with tigers and seagulls. Sold "aeroplanes" and made sizable profit, lets say $700.
- So, Eagles have recouped whatever they lost to Pandas and made a small profit ($100), but nevertheless ended making Pandas pretty rich. That was year 1.
- Eagles gained from Tigers ($200)/Seagulls($400), but ended up making Pandas richer by $600.
- Pandas now have accumulated $1,200 in trade (ie their reserves are at $1,200).
- Eagles have neither gained nor lost the reserves, still have $100 in the wallet.
- Tigers have a lost $200, moving their reserves to -$600 (negative reserves)
- In 8 years, Pandas' trade surplus with Eagles grows to $700. Lets say Panda's reserves settle at $3,200 by Year 10.
- Eagles desperately needed to fix Y2K bug and brought in in Tigers to do that
- Eagles started to see a trade "deficit" after paying Tigers for for Y2K software services and Tigers' debt decreases to $200
- Eagles still continue to make money from Seagulls, but now have an overall trade deficit (-$100) and reserves below zero (-$1,000).
- They have trade gain a trade "surplus" of $1,000 with Eagles in Year 20 and cumulative reserves have improved to $14,000
- Tigers are now providing software/technical support and are satisfied with trade surplus of $200 for that year. Reserves have grown to $1,000
- Eagles now suffer trade deficit with both Pandas and Tigers ($1,000+$200), and the reserves reach a new low of -$5,000
- Pandas start dumping "cheap" coffee mugs/electronics to Tigers and Seagulls and gain a trade surplus with each of them.
- Eagles have a debt of -$8,000 and Pandas have reserves of $18,000 in their kitties.
- (1) Year1 - Year20: when Seagulls were paying the Eagles, who really got rich? Is it Eagles, Pandas or the Tigers?
- (2) Year 1 - Year 20 : Are the Tigers incapable of making coffee mugs or learning how to make Electronics? What were Tigers doing from Year1 - Year25, when Pandas were pursuing their goal single-mindedly?
- (3) Pandas excelled at manufacturing and Tigers excelled at providing services. Which of these two can Eagles easily cut off and do it themselves?
- (4) Did Tigers learn anything? Do Tigers know what they want, even now?
- (5) Consider this scenario : On Year 25, Eagles messed up big time and their nests came crashing down. Now Eagles need $5000 to rebuild their nests, and continue to make "aeroplanes"/"software" to become profitable. But they already have a deficit of $8,000. So where do the Eagles get the total of $13,000 from? Whose got that kind of cash?
- (6) If Tigers or seagulls had a problem with Pandas, can they fight Pandas? Can they go to the "superpower" Eagle anymore? What can Eagles do when they themselves are trying to ask Pandas for favors, aka. borrowing $13,000?
Its the "Trade", Stupid - I by A Kumar is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-No Derivative Works 2.5 India License.