Frog in the Well

As I ruminate over the long sequence of the same blunders repeat over and over again, I can't help but wonder about the below. This ties to my last post, Last Nail in the Coffin : World War II

India had often been so pre-occupied with internal disputes, that it hadn't realized it had become a pawn in the hands of outsiders. There are several examples, Alexander and Ghori to name a few. But lets look at a more recent one.

Case in Point : By 1750's Marathas and Sikhs displace Mughals from most territories. Mughal empire is all but restricted to one city, with exception of few vassal states. In the remaining Mughal vassal province of Bengal, British East India Company and French East India Company see enormous trade and continue to outmanoeuvre each other. British East India Company decides that a change in the ruler of Bengal is needed for it to prosper. Nawab witnesses British misuse of "trade permits" and interference in the operations of the his court. The English fort is fortified without prior permission. By the time Nawab prepares to regain the upper-hand, it is too late. British defeat Nawab and their French support with the help of a disgruntled chief of Nawab (1757). This is the beginning of "British Raj". By 1850's British East India Company occupies all of India and takes over the administrative control, aka, rules India.

In the end, East India Companies of various colonial powers were all private-stock companies armed to the teeth, a concept long forgotten in India. And the centers of powers were in Europe, where they were granted permission to operate in foreign lands. Indian rulers were distracted with internal disputes and were completely blind to anything outside the shores of India. So, understandably, none of the Indian rulers had any clue about the intentions of these centers of power in Europe.

A lot of what goes on in India right now is no different. India's reaction to most of these foreign interests and influences staring in the face is that of ignorance, indifference and blind trust. India has no clue what the power centers in the West have in mind. So, it is reduced to the status of "pawn", continuing the historical trend. As I would like to put it...

Too often, some end up so focused in their small worlds, that they remain blind to the big picture. This makes them mere pawns in the larger game

A variant of what is so succinctly put in our literature "Frog in the Well".

Last nail in the coffin : World War II

70 years ago on this day (Sept 1), Hitler set into motion a sequence of events that changed the world map, literally. In 14th Century, Europe saw the onset of Renaissance and Colonialism encouraged by religious zeal of the then Catholic Church. Thus started the reign of Europe over the whole world for the next 6 centuries.

While the colonization was kicked off by the Spanish, the new age of exploration was driven by Portuguese efforts to find a sea route to India and China for spice trade, then known as the "Indies". The first phase of colonization saw Spanish and Portuguese compete to occupy new lands while the second phase of colonization saw Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Belgium vie for territories.

First Phase of Colonization (1402)

In 1402, Spanish empire occupied Canary Islands archipelago that lies 100KM off the northwest coast of Africa. In next 20 years, Portuguese Empire started expanding as well by occupying Ceuta in North Africa, just south of the Strait of Gibraltar. More Portuguese incursions follow in other areas of Africa, but still closer to Strait of Gibraltar. Earlier, sailors used to fear crossing a particular point (Cape Bojador) in north African coast for fear that they may not able to return. But once overcome, the whole of Muslim West Africa became the Portugal's area of influence.

In 1441, Portuguese bring the first consignment of slaves from Africa to Lisbon, kicking off a trade that became a popular form of Europe's sea trade. In 1452, Pope grants King of Portugal the right to reduce any "Saracens, pagans and any other unbelievers" to hereditary slavery, legitimizing slave trade under Catholic beliefs of that time. This is believed to have been used as justification for subsequent slave trade and aggressive missionary activities to expand Christianity.

Starting in 1481, the Church passed a series of "papal bulls" (edicts) dividing the new worlds between the Spanish and Portuguese in order to resolve growing disputes between the two colonial powers. By 1488, Portuguese explorations continue along the west coast of Africa and reach the southernmost tip of Africa, Cape of Good Hope. Christopher Columbus sails in another direction and discovers the Americas, which he initially believed was Asia. Later on, the newly discovered land was referred to the "New World". This is quickly followed by discovery of South America and its colonization.

In the meantime, Vasco Da Gama proceeds beyond Cape of Good Hope and becomes the first Portuguese explorer to discover sea route to India in 1498. By 1511, Portuguese continue eastward and capture Malacca, in present day Malaysia.

Second wave of colonization (1600)

In a second wave of colonialism, Britain, France, Germany, Belgium and Italy competed to rule the world. This era saw a continuation of missionary activity and had been a cause for conflicts with several indigenous people.

In 1600, English East India Company is formed with full monopoly for trade between tips of African and South American tips (which included all of Asia). In next few years, British settlements in North America appear. France joins the race in 1605, with creation of a colony in North America, now referred to as Nova Scotia in Canada.

Spanish empire started to wane in 17th century as it gradually lost the territories to France. At the same time Portuguese gradually saw their prominence fall. Portuguese territories of Bombay and Tangiers were given to the England as part of Portuguese princess's dowry.

The British East India company gradually gained more area in India fueling tensions with other colonial powers, and eventually muscling them out. British empire spanned across the Americas, Asia, Africa and Australia. France continued to occupy parts of South East Asia, India, Americas and Africa. Germany and Italy held some areas in Africa.

Revolutions and World Wars (1776)

By 18th Century, revolutions in the North America and South America resulted in loss of colonial territories of Britain, France and Portugal.

The British colonies of North America, which were established by European immigrants, adopt the “Declaration of Independence” in 1776. This and American Revolution eventually lead to the independent country, the United States of America. Encouraged by the success of American Revolution, new generation of leaders liberate almost all of South America by 1825 from Spain and Portugal.

On the eastern front, “East India Company” witnesses the first war of independence (1857). East India Company crushes the revolt, but ends up handing over control to the British Crown. The struggle for Independence persists and gains momentum during the early 20th century.

The First World War saw the territories of colonial powers change hands. It also resulted in considerable human loss and devastation. A second world war, just 20 years after the World War I ended, caused considerable attrition among all the European powers and became last nail in the coffin.

Post Wars (1945)

After enjoying the fruits of monopoly and suppression of colonies for centuries (refer to the picture below), European nations experienced tremendous devastation and loss. In spite of previous riches, Britain became insolvent after the war and borrowed US$3.75 Billion, Canadian $1.25 and British Pounds 2.5 Billion. Even though victorious, Britain saw rationing of various commodities including food and coal in the aftermath of the war. In the subsequent decades, it had to free its colonies in Indian subcontinent, South East Asia and Africa.

Germany lost 11% of its population to the war and had to pay $20 Billion as reparations to the Allies. In addition, US vigorously carried on a program to acquire as much of scientific know-how and patents as possible.

While the discontent among various European colonies was brewing for some time, World War II was the death-knell for the colonial powers of Europe. As Europe was trying to cope with the aftermath, United States and Soviet Russia emerged as new world powers. From being on the forefront of explorations and occupying territories , Europe became playground for the two superpowers.

Guess the old colonies and new superpowers can thank Hitler for that!

Note : This by no means condones the atrocities committed by Hitler. Hitler's actions along with the several untold massacres by Colonial powers in Latin America, India and Africa resulted in loss of ten's of Millions of innocent lives, which were not deemed worthy enough. The burden of these atrocities is only Europe's' to bear.

From Wikipedia

References :

www. wikipedia.org

uk.encarta.msm.com

Chandrayaan-I Aborted

On Aug 29th, ISRO's press release made public the news on Chandrayaan-I
Chandrayaan-I spacecraft looses radio contact

• Radio contact with Chandrayaan-I spacecraft was abruptly lost at 0130 Hrs (IST) on August 29, 2009. Deep Space Network at Byalalu near Bangalore received the data from Chandrayaan-I during the previous orbit upto 0025 Hrs (IST).

The first indication came with an innocuous sounding statement from ISRO on May 20th.
The Orbit of Chandrayaan-1 Raised

• After the successful completion of all the major mission objectives, the orbit of Chandrayaan-1 spacecraft, which was at a height of 100 km from the lunar surface since November 2008, has now been raised to 200 km. The orbit raising manoeuvres were carried out between 0900 and 1000 hrs IST on May 19, 2009. The spacecraft in this higher altitude will enable further studies on orbit perturbations, gravitational field variation of the Moon and also enable imaging lunar surface with a wider swath.

In an interview published on July 17th, ISRO Chief Madhavan Nair provided more information on issues faced as well as workarounds found. It is worth noting that going into the mission, India had very limited concrete knowledge on alien environment on moon. Chandrayaan-I is the first step in getting to know the moon and deal with unpredictables that will have to be learnt the hard way.

Chandrayaan's sensors fail; Craft's life may be reduced

• The ISRO chief said the mission has reached a stage where many of the electronics have failed and indeed some of the power supply instruments have malfunctioned.
• "But fortunately, we were able to energise the redundant units and keep them alive all this time. This has been going on for quite sometime. Unfortunately, during the last month we have lost one vital sensor," he said.
• "But to the credit of the ISRO scientific team, they have worked out a very innovative way of overcoming the problem," the ISRO chief said, but added that if some more failures happen, "then we will have problems".

NDTV's science writer Pallava Bagla writes on Aug 31st in BBC,
India moon mission a mixed success

• First, the spacecraft designed and built by the Indian Space Research Organisation (Isro) survived huge odds and successfully reached the Moon's orbit. This in itself was a big achievement since neither Russia or America succeeded in their maiden attempts; and there were several failures even before they got anywhere near the Moon.
• So did India ride on the shoulders of earlier successes?Certainly not, since the know-how and technologies to go to the Moon are just not available for the asking. Each nation has to learn on its own. India experimented and did that with complete success.

• The Indian mission was in certain respects much more challenging than the Chinese maiden lunar mission which was a simple national orbiter. Chandrayaan-1 was literally a two-in-one mission, since the main satellite was to orbit at 100km above the Moon and then a tiny gadget the size of a computer monitor was to attempt a landing on the Moon surface.
• No nation to date had succeeded in both a lunar orbiter and an impactor at the first attempt. This was more than an experiment. It was also a brave global geo-political statement since the probe that crash landed on the Moon also permanently placed India's flag on the Moon.
• Having done this, India became the fourth nation to have done this after Russia, America and the European Space Agency.This is hugely significant because, if ever the Moon's resources are to be divided, India's rightful share can be claimed having achieved what others have not been able to do.

Lets take this for what it is.. the first experiment, which met most of the ambitious goals.

However, hope ISRO learns the value of good PR and be more cautious in setting expectations next time.

Snippet from a previous post. Indian Space and new frontiers

• Right from when India is weeks away from reaching moon's orbit, ISRO’s has provided continuous updates on health and orbital information of Chandrayaan-I. Some preliminary images and hundreds of frames have subsequently been shared in the open web. This demonstrates tremendous confidence, maybe over-confidence even, of ISRO. ISRO definitely deserves pat on the back entering the big-boy's club, brimming with confidence.

Here comes BHUVAN

A significant project was unveiled on Aug 12, 2009 ahead of the Independence day. BHUVAN, the ISRO (NRSC) project provides Google-Earth like satellite views, terrain maps and a lot more. BHUVAN is India-centric and is expected to provide information like mineral/soil detail in future.

This has the potential to spawn off a range of other innovations specific to Indian markets and users. If maintained well and transferred to capable entities in private domain, this could be a watershed event for Indian software industry. Whether GoI has the vision to make it happen is a question we all dread. But for now, savor the sub-continent through ISRO's eyes.

How to get it?

Only the Beta version is currently available. Below are the necessary steps to start using it

1. Register on the portal http://bhuvan.nrsc.gov.in/
2. Make sure DirectX is installed (to download Bhuvan Plug-in) Microsoft Link
3. Login in Bhuvan portal using the ID and password
4. Will prompt you to download a Bhuvan Plug-in, Install the plug-in and relogin.

Anticipate stability issues and slowness.

Here is a snapshot of BHUVAN application

From ISRO's FAQ :

What do I require to run Bhuvan on my Machine?

You require the Bhuvan Plug-in which can be downloaded from the Bhuvan website after registration and you will also need DirectX8 or higher version (www.microsoft.com/windows/directx/) for installing the plug-in. Please note that the Bhuvan Plug-in can be installed with administrative privileges only.

How do I use Bhuvan?

When you first open Bhuvan website, You will land on the index page which gives you information on Bhuvan and this page also allows you to register for using the Bhuvan. Once you successfully register, you will land on the Bhuvan 3D client page. Here, there are three primary areas of the program that you'll be using. The main window shows a globe, and you can navigate around with your mouse or use the Heads-Up Display (HUD) option available on the right top corner. Double right click to zoom in, and double left click to zoom out (or use your mousewheel). Right click, hold, and drag to pan. The second area is at the upper right of the main window. When you move your mouse over the navigation compass, it give you more movement options such as rotate and tilt (which you can also do with your mouse). The third area is to the left of the main window. This frame includes a fly to location and fly to important places option. On the top of the globe are the menu options for layers, 2D and 3D drawing, measurement tools, snapshot tools etc. When you select any of these options, you see the context options on the left plane where you can make appropriate choices that you can turn on to make visible in the main windows such as roads, 3D terrain, and more.

Hafiz Saeed still free

Report from TOI :
Pak court indefinitely adjourns trial against 26/11 mastermind

GoI waits with bated breadth.

• The apex court's direction comes two days after India said there was "enough evidence" to continue investigation against the Jamaat-ud Dawa (JuD) chief in connection with the 26/11 attacks.

Hafiz still remains free.. Oh.. this time there is a perfectly valid reason : AG resigns. There seems to be a reason all the time.

• Sources said the move was apparently linked to the resignation of Punjab's Advocate General Raza Farooq on Sunday, who was representing the provincial government in the hearings.
  The provincial government sought time from the apex court to appoint a new Advocate General and asked for the hearing to be adjourned, sources said.
• Saeed is a 'free' man according to his lawyer A K Dogar. The case hearing was adjourned immediately on being taken up, according to Dogar. The shocking development comes despite India's submission of an additional dossier with evidence of Hafiz Saeed's involvement in 26/11, which was expected to tighten the state's case against him.
• Speaking to the media after Monday's hearing, Dogar said, "He will continue as free man, he can do whatever he likes. He is doing his duties at the second most important mosque in the country. I tell the whole country, Saeed opened 160 schools from sources of JuD, 52 madrasaas and 4 universities. I am elated to hear recently that a girl from the JuD Girls' High school, topped the list of all the boards."

After ton of literature, there is still no obvious link.

• Asked about the reports of a fourth dossier that India had provided recently, Dogar said, "Rehman Malik (Pakistani interior minister) who now calls all the shots in the country on these security matters - made a positive statement reported on July 28 - saying 'We have no evidence with us that Hafiz or JuD is in any manner connected with Mumbai attacks.'"

We continue to provide dossiers, which will likely be used to plug holes in their strategy.

• India responded to the latest queries from Pakistan on Saturday (August 1) over 26/11 by sending certified copies of Lashkar terrorist Ajmal Kasab’s confession and interrogation reports of LeT operatives Fahim Ansari and Sahabuddin Ahmed as part of a seven-page response. The communication is said to have sufficient evidence - as home minister P Chidambaram said this week - for Pakistan to proceed against the Jamaat-ud-Dawa chief Hafiz Saeed.

GoI hangs on to a non-existent ray of hope as discussed in Shame at Sharm-el-Shiekh.

Mantra should be : Forget resuming talks. Focus on economy, get manufacturing going and build your fences. Talks can resume after 2017 (when Obama is out)

Its the "Trade", Stupid - I

Something heavily under reported recently is a seismic shift in US's economic relations. If you have heard or read that "US officials are travelling around the world to convince countries like China and Japan to loan to US" and thought it was silly, read on. While at it, lets take stock of where India figures (or doesn't figure) in all this.

Clinton's presidential campaign of 1992 coined a phrase "Its the economy, Stupid" to stress on bad shape of the economy under incumbent George Bush Sr. It proved to be a good plank as Bush Sr. lost the reelection bid of 1992. However, the larger significance of this quote was lost, even in the land of its origin.

In this post, I would like to focus on one aspect of the economy, Trade. Here is an analogy to better illustrate the title:

Consider two groups doing trade, Eagles and Pandas, and follow the money exchanged (trade deficit/surplus, shown in arrows) and weight of wallet (reserve deficit/surplus, shown in the bubble). And consider that everybody started from scratch.

Eagles learnt how to fly and are known to build nice expensive "aeroplanes" and Pandas figured it was good business building "cheap" coffee mugs.

Year 1 : Eagles buy 1,000 coffee mugs ($1 each) from Pandas by paying $1000. Pandas buy 2 aeroplanes ($200 each) by paying $400 to Eagles.

In this trade,

• Eagles spent $1000, and their wallets are "empty" by $600 at the end of the day (trade deficit $600).
• Pandas spent $400, and their wallets are "heavier" by $600 by the end of the day (trade surplus $600).
• Or in terms of trade imbalance, Eagles are down $600 and Pandas are up $600.

• But, its not like Eagles were sitting idle, they in turn traded similarly with tigers and seagulls. Sold "aeroplanes" and made sizable profit, lets say $700.
• So, Eagles have recouped whatever they lost to Pandas and made a small profit ($100), but nevertheless ended making Pandas pretty rich. That was year 1.

Year 2 : The same pattern repeats.

• Eagles gained from Tigers ($200)/Seagulls($400), but ended up making Pandas richer by $600.
• Pandas now have accumulated $1,200 in trade (ie their reserves are at $1,200).
• Eagles have neither gained nor lost the reserves, still have $100 in the wallet.
• Tigers have a lost $200, moving their reserves to -$600 (negative reserves)

Year 10 : Lets fast forward to year 10. Between Year2 and Year 10, Pandas started making everything from coffee maker to serving trays that Eagles love.

• In 8 years, Pandas' trade surplus with Eagles grows to $700. Lets say Panda's reserves settle at $3,200 by Year 10.
• Eagles desperately needed to fix Y2K bug and brought in in Tigers to do that
• Eagles started to see a trade "deficit" after paying Tigers for for Y2K software services and Tigers' debt decreases to $200
• Eagles still continue to make money from Seagulls, but now have an overall trade deficit (-$100) and reserves below zero (-$1,000).

Year 20 : Pandas are now making coffee mugs/serving equipment/TVs and also started manufacturing electronics and seats for Eagles' "aeroplanes". Pandas also start venturing into Silicon Fabrication plants.

• They have trade gain a trade "surplus" of $1,000 with Eagles in Year 20 and cumulative reserves have improved to $14,000
• Tigers are now providing software/technical support and are satisfied with trade surplus of $200 for that year. Reserves have grown to $1,000
• Eagles now suffer trade deficit with both Pandas and Tigers ($1,000+$200), and the reserves reach a new low of -$5,000

Year 25 : On the strength of manufacturing, Pandas start taking Eagle's customers away.

• Pandas start dumping "cheap" coffee mugs/electronics to Tigers and Seagulls and gain a trade surplus with each of them.
• Eagles have a debt of -$8,000 and Pandas have reserves of $18,000 in their kitties.

Its probably obvious who the Eagles, Pandas and Tigers are.

Note : Before the economists start nitpicking, the analogy is highly oversimplified. The assumption of starting with "zero" balance is extreme. Also, the very fact that everybody is trading in Eagle's currency ($), makes it all Eagle's territory. But the underlying math still holds.

Now, a few questions for us all to ponder on.

• (1) Year1 - Year20: when Seagulls were paying the Eagles, who really got rich? Is it Eagles, Pandas or the Tigers?

• (2) Year 1 - Year 20 : Are the Tigers incapable of making coffee mugs or learning how to make Electronics? What were Tigers doing from Year1 - Year25, when Pandas were pursuing their goal single-mindedly?

• (3) Pandas excelled at manufacturing and Tigers excelled at providing services. Which of these two can Eagles easily cut off and do it themselves?

• (4) Did Tigers learn anything? Do Tigers know what they want, even now?

• (5) Consider this scenario : On Year 25, Eagles messed up big time and their nests came crashing down. Now Eagles need $5000 to rebuild their nests, and continue to make "aeroplanes"/"software" to become profitable. But they already have a deficit of $8,000. So where do the Eagles get the total of $13,000 from? Whose got that kind of cash?

• (6) If Tigers or seagulls had a problem with Pandas, can they fight Pandas? Can they go to the "superpower" Eagle anymore? What can Eagles do when they themselves are trying to ask Pandas for favors, aka. borrowing $13,000?

Its the "Trade", Stupid - I by A Kumar is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-No Derivative Works 2.5 India License.

Story of Submarines - II

(Continued from Story of Submarines - I)

Until 1850's, even though submarines performed successful dives and even moved under water, they were completely dependant on humans to manually drive the propellers. The 1860's brought in a new era where alternatives to human propulsion started to appear. While normal engines could help with motion on the surface, the key for under water endurance is a propulsion that is independent of air.

Also, until 1850's any progress in submarine evolution was predominantly driven by individual contributors. 1860's brought in new age where governments and investors began to realize the use of submarines as potent tools in war, and started to invest in them.

• 1861 : In the American civil war between the North and the South, "South" side authorized civilians to operate armed naval vessels and offered bounty for every enemy ship sunk. A motivated American cotton trader H.L. Hunley formed a company to finance and build true submarines, so he can sink ships of the "North" for prize money. His first submarine was seized by the the "North", Second vessel sank while being moved.

• 1861-1964 : The third of Hunley's submarines was flooded with water during trials when crew left manholes open possibly for air or light. Lives of 5 men were lost in this incident. It was raised and revived. However, when the commanders were disenchanted, Hunley persuaded the commanding general to allow it to operation. He revived the ship and supervised the ship himself. The boat sank for the second time and Hunley and the crew were never survived.

Two members of the original team harassed the commanding general enough that they were allowed another try. After being restored for a second time, in 1964, H.L. Hunley finally became the first submarine to sink a ship. But before it could escape, it is thought to have been unknowingly flooded by wake (wave created by a passing ship) . H.L. Hunley sank again for the third and final time, again taking the crew down with it.

Henley's consortium also attempted to replace manual propulsion with electrical motors, but the demonstrator vessel sank in Mobile bay, Alabama in rough weather.

• 1861-1866 : The US Navy (the "North" side of civil war) inducted its first submarine, "Alligator", which was designed in France. It was lost in a storm as it was being moved for its first combat mission. Several other submarines were built, but they were lost as well.

• 1863 : A French team of Charles Burn and Simon Bourgeosis launched "Le Plongeur", the first truly mechanical submarine, for the French Navy. The human muscle was replaced with engines driven by compressed air, but was too unstable for use.

• 1864 : German Wilhelm Bauer, who built a submarine in 1850, now proposed replacing human-muscle power with a internal combustion engine (invented almost 60 years earlier, but still impractical for submarines).

• 1870 : Jules Verne in his enormously popular science-fiction novel "Twenty Thousand leagues under the sea" opens the possibility of using electricity, since electricity operated devices don't need air. The lead in the novel, Captain Nemo, vaguely describes usage of electricity to run his submarine, "The Nautilus".

Note : Naseeruddin Shah plays the role of a Sikh Captain Nemo in the Hollywood movie "League of Extraordinary Gentlemen (2003)"

• 1878 -1881 : An Irish emigrant to US and schoolteacher John Phillip Holland built a prototype and demonstrated the use of gasoline engine to drive the submarine. It was followed by boat named "Fenian Ram" that could travel at 9 Knots on surface as well as under water. The problem with gasoline engines was that it needs oxygen to burn and hence has limited endurance under water.

• 1879 : George Garrett, a reverend with Irish roots built a steam powered submarine that used steam engines to drive the boat on surface and used compressed steam to drive the boat under water. Although t initial boats were lost, enough investments kept the idea going for longer, but didn't have much success.

• 1979-1981 : Polish Engineer Stefan Drzewiecki designed small submarines that were possibly for the first time serial produced for the Russia. Around 50 of these were built in two years.

• 1885 : Frenchman Claude Goubet built possibly the first battery-operated submarine offering good underwater alternative. However, it was unstable and unsuccessful.

• 1885 : An American inventor Josiah Tuck demonstrated a source of energy that doesn't need air, a chemical reaction based on caustic soda. However, feeling that Tuck had wasted most of his fortune, his relatives admitted him into a mental asylum.

• 1885 : Swedish inventor and industrialist Thorsten Nordenfelt brought in George Garrett and built steam-based submarines. The first of the submarines was sold to Greek Navy and the next two were sold to their bitter rival Ottomans Empire Navy (aka. Turkey). The first boat sold to Turkey became first vessel to fire a torpedo under water, but ended up sinking right after firing the torpedo.

Note : Selling arms to both sides of the war is widely accepted as "common sense" in most of the so-called "civilized world", but it is considered immoral by the India government even today (probably the only country)

Between 1887 -1906, United States, France, Great Britain, Japan, Germany, Italy and Sweden have all gotten into operating and building submarines. After countless mishaps and failures, by the start of 20th century, all the major powers of the time have started to invest heavily in submarine fleets.

Note that, as with most of technical developments in recent centuries, all inventors/investors of submarines belong to either Europe or America. This daunting lead has enabled these two regions to dominate the submarine building even now. As good as subs are in protecting the respective nations, submarines have become a highly profitable export and hence are even "good business". More on that later.

References:

1. History of Submarines
2. Weapons and Warfare, An Illustrated history of their impact : Submarines" by Paul E Fontenoy
3. Wikipedia.org

Story of Submarines - I

On the eve of a watershed event in Indian Naval History, appropriately set on the 10th anniversary of Vijay Divas, lets trace the spirit and determination that led to these fascinating machines of the deep.

In writing this post, I share my appreciation for what it takes to build something as amazing as the INS Arihant. The media attention and all the congratulations on this day is encouraging, but I wonder what will happen if a mishap happens with this new experiment, as with any first project? Will we support the effort through thick and thin? Will we allow the learning process to continue through successes and failures? Or will we join the chorus of folks criticizing what a waste of money it is and how pathetic we are in huge projects? As promised in Visakhapatnam on the map with ATV, here is the first in a series of posts...

First known record of submarines appears in 1580. The initial construction and evolution of submarines was driven by obsessed inventors of Europe and America. The story of submarines is littered with relentless inventors who fought incredible odds, some of whom lost everything in this dogged pursuit, even their lives. Over the next couple of centuries, stealth and surprise, offered by these machines have made them an interesting tool in warfare. The developments hence moved away from individual inventors to governments spending huge amount of resources (financial, material and human) in pursuit of better machines.

Timeline - Individual contributors

• 1580 : Englishman Willian Bourne, an inn keeper, mathematician and a former Navy gunner suggested first recorded theoretical account of how to keep a machine submerged under water and bring it to surface when needed, ie. fill the boat with water to submerge and expel water to surface (using ballast tanks)

• 1623 : A Dutch inventor Cornelius Drebbel from the court of King James I built the first submarine. It was essentially a modified rowboat that could go up to 15 Ft below water surface. The forward motion of the boat automatically pushed the boat underwater (opposite of "drag" that helps a moving aircraft to takeoff). Stopping the boat automatically makes it float to the surface, just like a slowing aircraft lands.

• 1653 : Frenchman De son built a 72-ft long semi-submersible (barely floats instead of diving) vessel for the Belgians to attack the English Navy. It was supposed to sneak up and punch a hole in the ships of British fleet. This is the first such machine built for war, though it was never used.

• 1729 : English carpenter Nathaniel Symons for the first time built a machine that resembled what William Bourne theorised in 1580. Though, it could not move under water, it demonstrated how to control diving and surfacing using ballast tanks (take water to submerge and release water to float). This forms the basis for all current submarines.

• 1776 : American (then a British colony) David Bushnell built what was referred to as "Turtle". This one-man machine performed most of the functions, current submarines perform. It submerges, moves under water and for the first time even was used in war. Though the mission did not succeed.

• 1800 : American Robert Fulton courted the French and built a 25-foot vessel called "Nautilus" (familiar name to the fans of "20,000 leagues under the sea") for the French to attack British vessels. Nautilus achieved successful dives of up to 25 feet and last up to 6 hours. However, owing to "morality" of sneaking up on ships, Fulton had disagreements with French and later on British and scraped the "Nautilus".

• 1850 : German Wilhelm Bauer's first submarine "Brandtaucher" sunk during trials with him and his crew. He survived and tried to sell his invention to several European governments until Russia showed some interest. His second submarine was demonstrated. On the even of coronation of the Tzar, he took a band of musicians in the submarine to play the national anthem, which was audible from under the water. But it never saw action in war.

References:

1. History of Submarines
2. Weapons and Warfare, An Illustrated history of their impact : Submarines" by Paul E Fontenoy

PIB : Arihant launched at Visakhapatnam

The day has come.

PIB news release :

India’s first indigenously built nuclear propelled strategic submarine named ‘Arihant’ meaning ‘Destroyer of the Enemies’ was launched today, 26 Jul 09, at the Ship Building Center, Visakhapatnam. India has thus joined a select group of nations which have the technological capability to build and operate nuclear propelled submarines.

The launch ceremony was attended by the prime Minister. Dr. Manmohan Singh, accompanied by Smt. Gursharan Kaur, Raksha Mantri Shri.AK Antony, Chief minister of Andhra Pradesh Dr. YS Rajasekhar Reddy, Raksha Rajya Mantri Shri MM Pallam Raju, Minister of State for Human Resource Development, Smt. D Purandareswari, Chief of the Naval Staff Admiral Sureesh Mehta and high ranking officials from the Navy, Department of Atomic Energy, and Defence Research and Development Organisation.

On this occasion, the Prime Minister congratulated the Director General of the ATV (Advanced Technology vehicle) Program Vice Admiral DSP Verma (Retd) and all personnel associated with it for achieving this historic milestone in the country’s defence preparedness. He noted that they had overcome several hurdles and barriers to enable the country to acquire self reliance in the most advanced areas of defence technology. The Prime Minister made a special mention of the cooperation extended by Russia.

The Prime Minister stated that the Government is fully committed to ensuring the Defence of our national interests and the protection of our territorial integrity. The Government would render all support to the constant modernization of our defence forces and to ensuring that they remain at the cutting edge of technology.

The Raksha Mantri conveyed to the gathering that the industrial capacity, Know-how and trained manpower that has been built up will sustain the construction of not only strategic platforms but will kick start a new age in ship construction in the country.

The ATV Program has spawned a new era in the field of cooperation between DRDO, BARC, Navy, PSUs and Private industry in which these organisations have synergized their efforts to achieve a significant technological and strategic milestone.

Following the launch, the submarine will undergo various trials before it is formally commissioned in the Indian Navy.

40th anniversary of Apollo11

40 years ago on July 20, 1969, first manned-spacecraft landed on moon. While celebrating this event, the three astronauts called for Mars mission. BBC Report: Moon astronauts urge Mars mission


The three man crew of the Apollo11 mission, Neil Armstrong, Buzz Aldrin and Michael Collins met on July 20, 2009 to commemorate this day.

• At a rare public reunion of the Apollo 11 crew, Buzz Aldrin and Michael Collins said Mars instead of the Moon should be the focus of exploration.

Astronaut Neil Armstrong :.

• Mr Armstrong told the audience: "It was the ultimate peaceful competition: USA vs USSR.

Astronaut Buzz Aldrin:

• "Apollo 11 is a symbol of what a great nation and a great people can do if we work hard, work together and have strong leaders with vision and determination," he said.
• But he also pushed for a mission to Mars: "The best way to honour and remember all those who were part of the Apollo programme is to follow in our footsteps; to boldly go again on a new mission of exploration."

Astronaut Michael Collins:

• "Sometimes I think I flew to the wrong place. Mars was always my favourite as a kid and it still is today."
• He urged further exploration, saying: "I worry that the current emphasis on returning to the Moon will cause us to become ensnared in a technological briar patch needlessly delaying for decades the exploration of Mars - a much more worthwhile destination."

Astronaut Eugene Cernan :

• Eugene Cernan, who was the last astronaut to step off the Moon, concurred with the Apollo 11 astronauts urging a new focus on Mars.
• "We need to go back to the Moon, we need to learn a little bit more about what we think we know already, we need to establish bases, put new telescopes there, get prepared to go to Mars. The ultimate goal, truly, is to go to Mars," he told journalists.

While we cannot let this effort be a drain on our scarce resources, we also cannot afford to not be a part of it either. Here is a snippet from my previous post, Indian space and new Frontiers (Nov 23, 2008)

• ISRO has traditionally adopted down-to-earth goals of bringing the benefits of space missions to common man in terms of helping fishermen, educational satellites and remote sensing. ISRO has met its charter and given back a lot to the tax payers. ISRO now needs to look beyond and establish itself in such a way that it should be a natural part of any international space mission of the future. ISS is yesterday's news, EMM is the new frontier and ISRO needs to be in the forefront of new age of space exploration

Free for all

One can replace Pearl Harbour with 9/11 and the below analogy will still hold. I wonder how we can justify this to next generation. Excerpt from Raman's blog : Day of Infamy.

The Japanese Pearl Harbour attack lasted just a few hours.

The LET attack lasted 60 hours plus.

The Japanese attack targeted mainly military installations and personnel.

The LET attack targeted only civilians---Indians and foreigners.

The ISI-sponsored LET attack was as treacherous as the Japanese attack.

And as dastardly.

And how did we react?

As a nation?

As a people?

As a political class?

As we have always done.

Brave and indignant words in the beginning.

And a subsequent reluctance to translate the words into action.

The day of infamy on December 7,1941, changed the history of the world.

And our own day of infamy of November 26,2008?

Has it changed the history of the sub-continent?

Have we created the fear of God in the minds of Pakistan and its terrorist surrogates?

Have our reactions made it certain that there will not be another 26/11 in our history?

Far from it.

Far, far,far from it.

Shame at "Sharm El Sheikh"

Most of our governments past and present are like creatures that never learn to avoid pain (or should I say pain of its people). This post is motivated by actions of our PM during his visit to Sharm-el-Sheikh, Egypt.

Some background first.

• Between May 2008 and Nov 2008, at least 7 out of 10 incidents were planned or launched by Pakistani Army and its intelligence agency (ISI) though its creation LeT
• Total of more than 40 bomb blasts occurred on these 7 attacks.
• Approximately 300 people lost their lives
• Almost 600 people, according to official estimates are maimed. Unofficial estimates are expected to be lot higher
• 6 months later, most of the people arrested by Pakistan for namesake were released one by one.
• Leader of LeT (the face of 26/11 terrorist attack) was just set free by Pakistani courts, apparently because federal government did not part with evidence.

Instead of doggedly pursuing the culprits of these attacks and making them pay wherever they are, Indian government chose to look the other way in Sharm-el-Sheikh. Knowingly or unknowingly, it even ended up rewarding Pakistan for it. Here is one report by Gourav Sawant. Report : Sell out at Sharm-el-Sheihk

Sawant asks-

• God forbid the next terror attack happens! And it will be given that the terror infrastructure in Pakistan is still intact. Both the UN and the US officials along with our own IB have repeatedly spoken of the Lashkar-e-Taiba terror threat and our inability to wake up to the threat - what will you do....Will you still talk to Pakistan about Siachen, Sir Creek, Jammu and Kashmir, terror and go through the whole process with innocents dying. If so sir…why blame Pakistan alone....we too will have blood on our hands....

For somebody affected with Pakistani violence on Indian cities and shores for almost two decades, here is the "sky is blue moment" from Sawant-

• Please learn from our past mistakes. Every time we have trusted them they have stabbed us in the back. Your predecessor went to Lahore and they did a Kargil on us. While Vajpayee and the entire diplomatic machinery was celebrating in Lahore, Pakistani troops were making deeper inroads into Kargil, Drass, Kaksar and Batalik.

• Perhaps, even as you were shaking hands in Sharm al Sheikh the Dirty Tricks Department of the Pakistan army was planning or even may be executing another plan to cut us...hurt us...maim us...

(For more on the above look into "operation topaz" and "Kargil").

A quote that needs to be drilled into our psyche : Those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

Visakhapatnam on the map with ATV

In 1948, Jal Usha, the first ship in Independent India was built and inaugurated in Visakhapatnam. After a little more than 60 years, another significant event in the history of India is about to unfold in Visakhapatnam.

The highly-secretive nuclear submarine project (covername : ATV) has been denied for almost three decades by various Governments and defence personnel. The layers of secrecy began to dissolve when the Defence minister for the first time since 1980's acknowledged the project and commented on its progress in Feb 2009. It is now scheduled to be inaugurated towards end of July.

I will follow up with another post on what all the excitement is about. For now, here is the report: India's first nuclear submarine to be launched soon

Quote:

• After spending over a decade cloaked under an obscure project name, the Advanced Technology Vessel (ATV) India’s first nuclear submarine finally gets a name: Arihant (destroyer of enemies), pulled out of a list with options like Astra. But more importantly, the Arihant propels India into an exclusive league of only five other nations who have designed and built their own nuclear-powered submarines. It also marks the first step towards the acquisition of the third leg of the nuclear triad— a secure underwater platform for launching nuclear weapons.

Now, four decades after it was proposed, first of the ATVs, is going to meet its new home.. water.

Quote:

• Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s wife Gursharan Kaur is to crack the auspicious coconut marking the historic launch of India’s first nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine at the naval dockyard, Visakhapatnam on July 26.

Suckers for praise?

Hillary Clinton is scheduled to arrive in India on July 17th for an official visit. Hillary's visit comes a full five months after she landed in Beijing.

Understandably US needs China a lot more than it needs India, to pick itself out of the current recession(note the forex reserves of the two countries from previous post). Still, in diplomatic speak, there is a message.

In this context, I have been having a difficult time understanding our psychology of falling for praise. In other words, we are mostly suckers for a few nice words. That in itself wouldn't be so bad. However, it begins to hurt our cause when we go ape on a charm offensive.

B Raman puts it so succinctly in Indo-US context. Hillary Clinton's Visit to India

Snippets from B Raman's blog

• 5.We have no culture of strategic-thinking and laser-sharp analysis based on cruel facts and figures. But we have a long-ingrained culture of wishful-thinking. All Hillary Clinton has to do is to make a few statements describing India as a great power, praising Mahatma Gandhi, highlighting the impact of Gandhiji on Martin Luther King and Barack Obama, India's IT genius etc, Indians will be quite happy for some months till the next disappointment comes.

• 7.Hype and flattery will be the defining characteristics of her visit. Indian ego will remain tickled for some months.

Hopefully, it takes more than some nice words before the media goes gaga over Hillary charming personality. On a positive note, it is said that she is visiting only India and Thialand, in recognition of Indian sensitivities to clubbing India and Pakistan on same trip.

An Indian Microprocessor

The Electronic design service industry has been a strong suite of Indian semiconductor community. While the government policy and incentives towards a fabrication plant have miserably failed, it is heartening to learn that an Indian microprocessor is being thought of.

Though primarily meant for defence applications, an Indian microprocessor has the potential to spawn a range of design activities in India and is strongly welcomed. It needs to be noted that the proposal is still in draft stage and Indian bureaucracy is notoriously slow, so need to wait and watch.

Report : Govt to Chip in with India Microprocessor

Snippets ....

The below number is significant. With increased popularity of cutting edge consumer electronics, demand for these is expected to shoot up. With the miserable failure of the semiconductor incentives, it is quite possible that India will have to import bulk of these devices, and by extension will have to forgo a good part of our forex reserves just to meet this thirst. India needs to find ways to be more self-sufficient on this front to continue to enjoy a healthy forex reserves. Just for comparison, Indian forex reserves as of June 2009 are at $262 Billion, against China's $2132 Billion. [ref]

• Demand for microchips from India’s booming technology sector is expected to touch $315 billion by 2015, but a semiconductor policy of previous years to encourage firms to manufacture them locally evoked little interest from the private sector.

On how devastating compromised systems can be, the reports says :

• The government document, a copy of which is with ET, presents several such scenarios. If the Indian Army's WAN (Wide Area Network) is cut off from other networks, hypothetically the army’s equipment can still be activated wirelessly by foreign parties to transfer information or compromise it, the document says.
• “Unless India has its own microprocessor, we can never ensure that networks (that require microprocessors) such as telecom, Army WAN, and microprocessors used in BARC, ISRO, in aircraft such as Tejas, battle tanks and radars are not compromised,” the document points out.

It is also interesting that the team opted for Open Sparc architecture and Linux.

• The India Microprocessor is likely to adopt Sun Microsystem’s Open Sparc opensource chip design technology, along with Linux operating system and MySQL database software

The following conclusions are conflicting though..

• “History has shown that the need for defence security has sparked a chip industry in most nations,” she said. Unlike the US and China, India still does not have chip-making technology, and Zerone seeks to change that.
• However, the fabrication of chips will be outsourced to a private foundry overseas, as India still does not have one.

Either way, if this takes off, it augurs well for domestic semiconductor industry.